I've been reading "Pro Football Prospectus" this week. It has some good information in it, but it's a little technical and isn't quite as accessible as the companion publication, "Baseball Prospectus."
Anyway, the authors put together a chart of the likelihood of a team making the playoffs with a particular record. In other words, if a team is 5-3, what are the odds that it will reach the postseason?
When I saw that, I thought it would be fun to see how the Bills' season progressed. As we know, the Bills' hopes unraveled like, well, a $3 sweater. Here's the week by week report:
1. Win - Seattle - 54.3%
2. Win - Jacksonville - 65.2%
3. Win - Oakland - 79.5%
4. Win - St. Louis - 88.0%
5. Loss - Arizona - 80.6%
6. Win - San Diego - 87.3%
7. Loss - Miami - 76.7%
8. Loss - N.Y. Jets - 69.3%
9. Loss - New England - 54.5%
10. Loss - Cleveland - 30.3%
11. Win - Kansas City - 50.0%
12. Loss - San Francisco - 28.6%
13. Loss - Miami - 10.3%
14. Loss - N.Y. Jets - 3.0%
15. Win - Denver - 6.8%
16. Loss - New England - 0.0%
If the Bills had beaten Cleveland to go to 6-4, their chances would have improved to 66.3 percent.
Ouch.
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