Showing posts with label Buffalo Bills. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Buffalo Bills. Show all posts

Monday, December 29, 2014

What if I told you ...

... back in July that the Buffalo Bills would have a winning record in the 2014 season? That the Bills would not have a losing record at any point in 2014? That they would finish second in the AFC East?

My guess is that many Bills fans would have settled for that. And that's exactly what happened. The first winning season in 10 years (9-7) was a good sign of progress. As an added bonus, the first-round pick in 2015 that was given up in the trade involving Sammy Watkins turned out to be the 19th pick in the first round. Just for comparison's sake, EJ Manuel went 16th overall two years ago. It's still a slightly painful transaction - but it could have been much worse.

But, while no one expected joy after sitting out the postseason again, there's a lot of anger out there. Maybe 15 years of missing the playoffs will do that, but there are calls for massive shakeups of personnel and some firings in the team's football department. Admittedly, some of this anger turns up in the form of letters to the sports editor or talk shows, and those are outlets which are not representative as the public as a whole. (In other words, those people are more likely to pick up the phone to complain rather than those who are relatively content.)

Part of the reaction naturally can be traced to something along the lines of the old Peanuts cartoon. Remember when Charlie Brown would come up to kick a football, and Lucy always pull it away at the last minute? That what the season felt like to some fans.

The Bills were good enough to get people's hopes up, a welcome development as these things go. Mix that with the good feeling generates by the sale of the team to the Pegulas, and expectations hadn't been so high in years. Then came the Miami game, which dashed some hopes. And then came the Oakland game, a stunning loss to a poor team that took place only a week after an equally shocking win over Green Bay.

In hindsight, a winning record is a good-sized accomplishment under the circumstances. As most people will tell you, the Bills didn't really have a starting quarterback on the roster this season. Manuel didn't live up to expectations and was benched in favor of Kyle Orton, one of those quarterbacks who is good enough to prevent the boat from sinking if your starter gets hurt but not good enough to be a top-flight starter. Orton complicated matters by retiring the day after the season ended, making some wonder what was on his mind for the final weeks of the season. Good teams usually have good quarterbacks.

In addition, the running game did little throughout 2014. The Bills' current coaches never figured out how to use C.J. Spiller properly, and then he broke his collarbone and sat out several weeks. Fred Jackson showed signs of wearing down, and the others looked like the substitutes they were most of the time. By the end of the season, the coaches seemed afraid to try to run the ball on short yardage because they knew they had little chance of making it.

Show me a team with issues at quarterback and running, and I'll show you a team that has offensive line problems. A couple of more good players in that position would have been nice, and the fact that Cyrus Kouandjio, the second-round draft choice, couldn't even get on the field was discouraging. The coaching staff received some criticism for all of this, but the group didn't have much to work with.

This is not to say that it won't be an interesting offseason at One Bills Drive. We start with the fact that new owner Terry Pegula has a chance to put his own stamp on the franchise, if he desires. It's now his shoe store. There are reports circulating that he is interested in hiring someone as either a consultant or as a head of the football department - not a bad idea.

Speaking of reports, stories have circulated that Marrone and general manager Doug Whaley aren't getting along. That has been denied, but it's hard to say from a distance if there is the slightest bit of truth in it. Marrone reportedly has a three-day opt-out clause in his contract, effective at the end of the season, and no one is going to say what might be happening in that area behind the scenes.

Then there's the quarterback situation, which just got more complicated with Orton's announcement. The Bills certainly can't be enthsiastic about the idea of selling EJ Manuel as the only possible option for 2015 at the position. Still, teams are really good about locking up decent quarterbacks, so those who could be available for trades or as free agents have all sorts of flaws attached. That missing first-round draft choice could have been useful there.

It's a complicated picture, and there are a lot of pieces in play. But there's also a little hope after the just completed season ... for a change. By training camp, we'll know more if the Bills have a chance of continuing their forward progress, or if a step backward is more than possible.

Be notified of new posts via Twitter @WDX2BB.

Tuesday, September 09, 2014

The 24-hour rule

The cheering bounced all over social media, as well as in offices and homes throughout the area on Tuesday.

The Buffalo Bills' future in Western New York is secure.

Everyone wondered what would happen to the Bills once Ralph Wilson passed away and the team was up for grabs. If fact, we wondered for 20 years. Now we know. Terry and Kim Pegula sold some mineral rights, or at least went through the cushions on the living room coach, to raise more than a billion dollars, and apparently won the bidding process in relatively easy fashion. It's certainly one of the biggest sports stories in the area's history - maybe the biggest. And since the Pegulas also own the Sabres and Bandits, this might make them as important as Wilson in the area's sports history - although we'll have to see what develops in the years to come on that.

The fear, obviously, involved the fact that NFL teams are few and far between. What's more, a team in, say, Los Angeles was worth much more than it would be in Buffalo. Therefore, someone who wanted to move the team to a bigger market could afford to bid more, since a change of location might be worth millions and millions of dollars. I spent the last few months wondering if some rich hedge fund guy would come out of nowhere and make an outrageous bid to buy the team and ship it to his backyard.

Therefore, the unsung hero of the whole process was the unnamed person who came up with the idea of putting a huge "poison pill" into the Bills' lease for Ralph Wilson Stadium. It would have cost someone $400 million to move the team ahead of schedule, a number that certainly would give anyone pause. Take a bow, whomever you are. Wilson also gets credit for agreeing to it.

Part of the joy of the announcement came from the fact that the two losing bidders certainly weren't ideal candidates for the job. The Toronto group might have sworn on a stack of Bibles taller than the CN Tower that it wasn't interested in moving the team north, and no one would have believed it. Maybe someday we'll find out its real intentions. And maybe Jon Bon Jovi will be able to sell some CDs in this part of the world now, although I still wouldn't book him for a concert here for a while.

Then there's Donald Trump, who wasn't exactly the picture of reason during his days as an owner in the United States Football League. Some old-timers in the NFL might have thought twice into accepting him into their exclusive club. Besides, how many football owners want to be sure of receiving more publicity than the team's starting quarterback?

Given those three choices, this is clearly the best possible outcome for Western New York and its fans.

All right, we start with that celebration. Some football teams say they will celebrate a win for a day, and then move on. I'm willing to do that hypothetically here. So what will the landscape look like ... tomorrow?

That's an interesting question. The jury is frankly still out on what sort of owners the Pegulas will be, at least based on their time with the Sabres. No one is ready to compare them to, say, Bob Kraft of the New England Patriots quite yet.

Terry Pegula has shown a willingness to spend money on the product so far with the hockey team, and that's important. The team's record since his takeover, however, has been headed in the wrong direction - crashing at the bottom of the league last season. There's also the matter of Pat LaFontaine's arrival and departure, which was at best sort of clumsy and certainly raised questions about management decisions from the top. Considering the Bills' front office hasn't been known as particularly functional in the last several years, it's easy to wonder if help is on the way.

Then there are the matters that surround the franchise's future in Buffalo. A new stadium - or a major restructuring of the old one - is going to be necessary in the next several years. That's going to cost a billion dollars or so. That's a good-sized commitment for a facility which could be used only 10 times a year. (A domed stadium would increase usage but also increase the price tag.) The community - all of it - needs to have a discussion about whether it is willing to pay that price, and it might be a loud one.

A domed stadium also might help to solve another Bills problem - attendance. Plenty of people take a wait-and-see attitude about buying tickets for November and December games, which means Buffalo is one of the few cities in the NFL to worry about blackouts during the regular season. It's basically here and Jacksonville, with San Diego showing up once in a while. I have no doubts about the loyalty of existing Bills' fans, but the team could use more of them who are willing to open their wallets in cold weather. Even restaurant owner Russ Salvatore isn't willing to buy a few thousand Bills tickets every week. Meanwhile, new NFL stadiums are all about luxury boxes and club seats these days, and Buffalo isn't New York when it comes to Fortune 500 companies. The words "major league city" carry responsibilities as well as benefits.

But enough negative thoughts. Those other items are just details - important, certainly, but not at the top of the list. You have to have a team first, and Western New York will have one for the foreseeable future. That's worth celebrating ... for quite a while.

Be notified of new posts via Twitter @WDX2BB.

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Scanning the horizon

I had a thought about the Buffalo Bills' upcoming season in an odd place - the barber's chair.

Bear with me on this one for a moment.

As I sat in the chair for the monthly visit, it came up in conversation that I had been going to the same barber almost dating back to the time I moved to Buffalo. In other words, I've been having Sandy give me a trim for more than 40 years.

In other words, I made a decision back in 1971, and haven't looked back. That's in spite of the fact I've moved within the region a couple of times. I may have to drive a ways now, but I make an appointment, get it done, usually have lunch with a friend near his establishment in Clarence, and move on. That's one fewer thing I've had to worry about over the years.

Now let's put that in terms of building a football team.

The fewer decisions a football team has to make, the better off it is. No, teams don't pick players and expect them to be starters for 40 years, but 10 would be nice for high draft choices. Let's look back at the Bills' fairly recent history and see how they've done in that regard.

Let's go back to 2000, when the first-round pick was Eric Flowers. It took about two years to figure out he wasn't going to be a factor at defensive end. That meant they had to take Aaron Schobel in the second round the following year. Schobel was one of those good picks, but it meant they couldn't address another need. In the Flowers category was Aaron Maybin, a 2009 first-rounder. I won't go over the players who could have been Bills in that slot, as you'll become ill.

In 2001, the Bills had the fourth pick overall and took Mike Williams, a tackle from Texas. Everyone thought he was a can't-miss player, a future Pro Bowler. Well, he missed. His failure to produce meant the Bills had to bring in many other players to fill that gap, and they spent a lot of money while failing to do so for years. It looks like Cordy Glenn is that guy now, at least.

Running backs can be a little injury-prone, and it's tough to count on someone lasting a decade. Still, the Bills have gone through a few of them. Willis McGahee was a gamble from the start, but did last for quite a while in the NFL. Sadly, only three of those seasons were in Buffalo, as he wore out his welcome. When McGahee was traded, Marshawn Lynch was drafted to replace him. Lynch again may make it through a decade, but not here. He had issues in Buffalo, and the Bills drafted C.J. Spiller to replace him. (Fred Jackson's arrival also helped make Lynch expendable, although Lynch certainly has done well in Seattle.)

Sometimes you get lucky in the draft. In 2008,the Bills picked up Stevie Johnson in the seventh round after whiffing on James Hardy in the second. Similarly, Buffalo took Kyle Williams in the fifth round after trading up to the first round to acquire, gasp, John McCargo.

What's more, free agency certainly adds some odd angles to the equation. The Bills have had some successes in recent years in the draft or in the free-agent market - Andy Levitre, Paul Posluszny, Jairus Byrd, Jason Peters, Donte Whitner. All left for greener pastures. That's going to happen in some cases in an era of free agency, but it's difficult to see 10-year solutions walk away.

That brings us to today. EJ Manuel is the Bills' big hope at quarterback. Buffalo obviously liked him enough to take him in the first round more than a year ago. As a rookie, he didn't show us that he would be a 10-year answer at the position. But, he didn't show us that he couldn't be that 10-year answer. We'll have to wait and see, which makes this a key year for him and the team.

Meanwhile, there obviously is a decision to be make on Marcell Dareus, a first-round pick in 2011. He's obviously a good-sized talent, pardon the pun, making the Pro Bowl last season at nose tackle. But he's been adding personal baggage by the month lately. It's tough to know when a player like that has become more trouble than he's worth ... and he's worth a lot.

Naturally, the more you miss on players, the more losses you have ... which leads to coaching changes, and new football philosophies, and more player changes. The cycle of losing can be painful to watch.

The long-term theory also applies to other sports, although there are differences. It's very difficult to judge 18-year-old hockey players when they become available for the draft. You're asking scouts to say what someone will be like five years into the future. If they could predict the future, they'd be buying lottery tickets. Still, when you miss, it's painful. There's a lot riding on Sabres' top pick Sam Reinhart in the coming years. He has to replace such players as Ryan Miller and Thomas Vanek as the face of the franchise, although at least the Sabres got their 10 yearsor so  out of those two before they were traded just before free agency.

Fans want to win right away, and sometimes that can happen with skill and luck in roster-building. But usually the building blocks for such seasons have come with good, long-term decisions from the past that improve the odds.

Ask my barber about those.

Be notified of new posts via Twitter @WDX2BB.

Wednesday, January 02, 2013

New man in charge

It's been a busy few days at One Bills Drive in Orchard Park.

On Sunday, the Buffalo Bills defeated the New York Jets to close out a disappointing regular season. Fans came in with high expectations thanks to some high-profile roster moves, but they didn't quite work out. The offense was inconsistent, and the defense was worse than that - allowing points in bunches in too many games.

That all made Monday feel inevitable. Head coach Chan Gailey and his entire coaching staff were dismissed. Gailey had three years to try to turn the Bills around, and couldn't do it. Buffalo was under .500 each time, and that was about as much patience as any team in the NFL has these days. If Gailey had come back, he might have been greeted by some serious numbers of empty seats on opening day.

Was that it for trips to Orchard Park? Nope. The media made the drive back to Ralph Wilson Stadium on Tuesday as well. The Bills held a news conference to announce that Russ Brandon had been promoted to team president. Owner Ralph Wilson was "passing the torch" after being in charge since 1960.

Brandon said many of the right things at the news conference. The team's record clearly has been unacceptable for more than a decade (not a single playoff appearance in that time), and the Bills have frequently been less than relevant in any discussions about the NFL. (In other words, they are the Columbus Blue Jackets of pro football.) Brandon wants to get to work to change that, and supposedly he and other executives are off on a interview tour at this writing.

There's no way at this point of knowing what will happen with this change completed. I had heard that Wilson had taken a major step back from day-to-day operations some time ago, and that the Bills were more or less telling him what they planned to do - and having Wilson essentially rubber-stamp it - as opposed to having Wilson make all of the decisions himself. Is this much of a difference?

I'm the opposite of an insider when it comes to the Bills' organization, but I'll be looking for one immediate clue for a possible change of philosophy. Wilson was never a fan of coaches who were big names and thus on the expensive side. I'm not sure why; maybe Chuck Knox's time here was a bad experience somehow. Three years ago there were a lot of good-sized names out there, and the Bills hired none of them to take Gailey. If someone like Lovie Smith shows up for a news conference at One Bills Drive soon, that would be a pretty clear signal that times had changed.

Then again, it's easy to wonder just how much of a different a coach can matter, even at the NFL level. There are all sorts of good people out there that more or less know what they are doing. The ones who succeed for the most part seem to be the ones who have a very good quarterback.

Let's think about that. The Bills have never really replaced Jim Kelly. Doug Flutie and Drew Bledsoe had some moments but their good days didn't last long enough. You can go through Todd Collins, J.P. Losman, Trent Edwards, Alex Van Pelt and now Ryan Fitzpatrick, and you won't find anyone that has been even average statistically. Come to think of it, the Bills went through the quarterback wilderness between the end of the Joe Ferguson Era and the start of Kelly's time here.

Around the league, teams like New England, Green Bay, Denver and Atlanta have top-notch quarterbacks and are in the playoffs. A few teams have won Super Bowls without someone very good at the position, but not many.

The problem is that you never know where the next good quarterback is coming from. That means Brandon and the rest of the Bills front office could use some luck in the upcoming season to identify a new face at that spot who can make a difference. Otherwise, we may be having more news conferences in a relatively short time.

Be notified of new posts via Twitter @WDX2BB.

Thursday, August 18, 2011

Nothing in the mailbox

The Buffalo Bills have ended the public portion of their 2011 training camp at St. John Fisher outside of Rochester. They'll do their practicing in private now, away from the prying eyes of the public.

That seems appropriate. This is a team that seems to get more anonymous by the moment.

There's been plenty of excitement around many NFL teams in the past few weeks. The lockout came to an end, compressing an entire offseason into a week. Free agents were available, trades could be made, draft choices could be signed, etc. The possibilities seemed, well, if not endless, at least large in number.

But in Buffalo, much of the news seemed a bit discouraging. There were a couple of veteran starters from previous Buffalo teams who had become free agents. Donte Whitner was expected to depart, and he did for San Francisco. Meanwhile, linebacker Paul Posluszny opted to jump to Jacksonville for a big offer and a chance to play in a 4-3 defense.

Now, neither player is an all-pro. Whitner didn't seem to make many plays at safety; George Wilson seemed to find himself around the football more often in spot duty. Posluszny had a lot of tackles, although it's tough to say if that's a tribute to the lack of talent in front of him in the defensive line. Still, these are established NFL players.

On the incoming side, the Bills signed Tyler Thigpen to fill the backup quarterback role. He seems OK for that role, but he's not someone at the moment who might start a quarterback controversy. Brad Smith, a wide receiver/running back/quarterback, is an interesting player but probably is a complimentary part rather than a key ingredient.

During the course of camp, the news got odder. Buffalo's offensive line hasn't been very good in recent times. The team may have had little to lose, but Eric Wood moved over to center to replace Geoff Hangartner for the moment. That left Kraig Urbik as a starting guard, which was, um, surprising. And the other night Chad Reinhart starting taking snaps with the first team. That was a demotion for Andy Levitre, who had started most of the games for the last couple of years. Again, hmmm.

Then there was the surprising trade of Lee Evans to Baltimore for a measly fourth-round pick. A couple of years ago Evans was one of the few Bills on the lists of the 100 best players in the NFL. His numbers have dropped in the last couple of years. Was that due to decaying talent or the constant quarterback shuffling of the past few years? The Bills must have felt they wouldn't renew his contract in February, so they wanted to get something, anything for him now. Still, he was another veteran NFL player who had departed with nothing much of value coming this way in return.

Finally, there's the strange case of Aaron Maybin, who was the team's first-round draft choice two years ago. His playing time dropped off drastically as the months went by, to the point where he couldn't get on the gameday roster by the end of last season. Then, when told to bulk up in order to play linebacker at camp, he reported at 225 pounds. Maybin could be crushed at that weight by opposing 350-pound tackles. I'll miss him, though; he was an unfortunately easy target for jokes in The News' "Five Spot" column.

Last year, I wrote in a blog that the saddest part of the Bills' problems was that they just didn't seem to matter nationally. Yes, they had an NFL franchise, but it was filled with anonymous players and hadn't won consistently in years. I'm not willing to give up on the front office and coaching staff yet, but they still have some selling to do (in the form of better play) to convince me that relevance is around the corner.

Friday, January 07, 2011

End of the season blues

The National Football League season isn't over in general -- the playoffs start Saturday -- but it sure is in Buffalo. You probably could argue that it ended two weeks ago.

And you've never seen a season end with more of a whimper than this one.

The Bills finished 4-12 this season, missing the playoffs once again as they have throughout this century. They lost their first eight games, won four of their next six, and then were the subject of a pair of beatdowns (it's a silly word, I know, but it fits) against the Patriots and Jets. Yes, the Bills had about run out of players by then and were recruiting wide receivers from pickup games, but it was still tough to watch. So it's 4-12 and the third overall draft choice for the locals.

My usual line of thinking is that sports teams go into seasons with several questions that need to be answered, and the season provides the answers. What have we learned?

* The coaching staff eventually made the right decision on quarterbacks. You could argue that it took a little too long to figure Trent Edwards wasn't the answer, but that's an easy second-guess. Ryan Fitzpatrick will never be great, but he was at least OK at times.

* The selection of C.J. Spiller looks a bit worse in hindsight, although no one should give up him. Clearly the Bills had bigger needs than a running back, even though the team probably figured (correctly) that Marshawn Lynch had worn out his welcome. Just as clearly, Spiller showed flashes of great ability. Even so, it would have been nice to get a clear starter and impact player with that first-round pick and some were taken after Spiller was picked.

* Two coaching staffs have decided that Aaron Maybin just can't play in the NFL. I hope he's not cut anytime soon, though, as he's a convenient target for Five Spot lines at work. I guess John McCargo is in the same class.

* The conventional wisdom about the Bills entering the season was that they didn't have much talent. I didn't see anything to change anyone's mind. Is there anyone on the roster who might rank in the top 100 of NFL players? Lee Evans hasn't played at that level for a while, although he sure doesn't have much help.

* Is it too much to ask to see a second-, third- or fourth-round pick come through in a big way once? In other words, Torell Troup, Alex Carrington and Marcus Easley still look like projects a year into their careers. (To be fair, Buffalo did do better with second-rounders last season.)

* And just who is in charge of scouting tight ends, anyway?

The rebuilding process is not going to be a short one, and considering the possibility of a lockout in 2011 and the Bills' stadium lease expiring after the 2012 season, time doesn't seem to be on anyone's side.

Sunday, October 03, 2010

Double ending

It's always a sad day when the major-league baseball season ends. Summer is officially gone. It's time to put the screen windows up and replace them with storms, and start up the furnace. It's even sadder in our house when the Red Sox and Mets both miss the playoffs, and the Yankees make it.

Here in Buffalo, though, Sunday marked a double whammy. Not only did the baseball season end, but football season is about over as well.

That's not what the schedule says, but that's what my head says after watching the Bills get positively crushed by the Jets. As the cliche goes, if it had been a prizefight, the referee would have stopped it after three rounds, er, quarters.

What was pretty obvious two weeks ago has become painfully plain now. The Bills are going nowhere, again. Even if the new coaching staff and front office knows what it is doing, there is a big job ahead. The run of non-playoff teams is going to extend another year, minimum. And probably more.

It's easy to see the culprit here -- bad decisions litter the team's past. They traded up for J.P. Losman, traded up for John McCargo, drafted James Hardy (who pulled a gun on his father on Father's Day shortly after the draft) ... heck, drafted Mike Williams a while ago. I could go on and on, but you get the idea. That doesn't even mention some of the free-agent acquisitions.

But here's the worst part, that doesn't get mentioned much. People are starting to wonder if we'll ever see the Bills get good. I emphasize ever.

Let's review. Putting the Bills back together is obviously going to be a bigger job than we thought. It's tough to picture them getting more than a handful of wins this season.

Then comes 2011. You have to wonder if there's going to be a 2011 season. Both sides seem poised to dig in and have one of those huge labor disputes that happens to pro sports every so often. Football has had some labor peace in the past 23 years, so it will take some work to avoid one next year.

No matter what, 2012 will be here before we know it. That's also known as the last season of the Bills' 15-year lease. There hasn't been a peep out of anyone about that. It's tough to know what everyone is thinking, since it's still two years away. But with a shrinking market and a 92-year-old owner who apparently has no plan of succession about the team's future, it's easy to wonder what will happen to the Bills. That's particularly true since the franchise is probably worth $250 million more in Los Angeles than it is in Buffalo.

I have out-of-town friends who say they would love to be in Buffalo the day the Bills win a Super Bowl. You wonder if they'll ever have the chance.

Monday, January 04, 2010

Turn on the juice

The Buffalo Bills sure can make rooting for them a difficult experience.

Let's look (thankfully briefly) at the past year. The team's front office and coaching staff blew up the offensive line in the offseason, essentially starting over. Then the Bills installed a new, no-huddle offense that was almost guaranteed to confuse the rookies and newcomers on it, especially at first. As an added wrinkle, coach Dick Jauron fired his offensive coordinator on the eve of the season. Sure enough, it didn't work, and Jauron was fired in the middle of the season, which almost never works in football.

Yet, there seemed to be a silver lining. As I wrote in this space before, this was a pretty good year to be looking for a head coach. There were a variety of coaches with Super Bowl experience out in the marketplace. By making a decision on Jauron so early, the Bills guaranteed themselves a chance to talk to all of them earlier than most of the other teams in the league. It was no guarantee of success (ask Mike Shanahan about that), but at least the door was open.

The Bills also announced that they were going to hire a general manager to run the football operations. It was a chance to bring in some bright mind with a fresh perspective about how to revamp the entire operation and get off the treadmills of losing records. A bit of hope was in the air.

Some of the air came out of the hope balloon when the Bills announced they hired Buddy Nix as general manager. That's nothing against Nix. He's got a strong record in a variety of areas and learned from some good people. Besides, compared to the last guy in that job, he's a comparative younger at the age of 70.

But the search to fill that job was troubling. Apparently the Bills never talked seriously to anyone who worked outside of One Bills Drive, as John Guy was the only other person to be interviewed. That doesn't fill anyone with confidence that there will be change we can believe in, to coin a phrase.

Some of the glamour candidates don't appear to be interested in walking into Buffalo's head coaching job right now for one reason or another. Shanahan might regret not giving the Bills more consideration after a year or two of working for Redskins' owner Daniel Snyder, but that's another column.

We never know where the next great coach is coming from, of course, but at this point it looks as if the Bills only have one chance to hit a home run in the coaching search. That would be to hire Brian Billick.

You might remember Billick. He coached the Baltimore Ravens to a Super Bowl championship a while back. Billick was the offensive coordinator behind some great Minnesota teams, but after he jumped to Baltimore, the Ravens became famous for a punishing defense. You have to like someone who can work with the material at hand. He lost his job after a season in which he admitted he took on too much responsibility when he tried to be his own offensive coordinator for a full season.

Anyone who saw the HBO's series on the Ravens, "Hard Knocks," knows that Billick is an extremely smart man who you'd rather have on your side than against you. Besides, he has a college background in journalism, wrote a good book, and once appeared on "The Match Game." I can relate to anyone who knows the news business and game shows.

I'm no NFL Insider, as they say on ESPN, but unless I'm missing something Billick sure looks like he should be coaching somewhere in the NFL. Ron Rivera or Jim Harbaugh or whoever might be a great coach some day, but the Bills need some juice right now. Billick might be the one guy who can provide it right now.

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Track record

I just finished reading Brian Billick's book on the current state of the National Football League. You can read a full review of the book here, but there are a couple of applications to what has been going on at One Bills Drive lately.

First, Billick talks about how well he worked with Baltimore Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome during the time he was head coach there. Newsome basically stayed in the home office and watched every practice and game as he did his job. He sent scouts to look at other players; he was only interested in his own team. Therefore, when something came up, Newsome was very familiar with the situation. He could give a direct, face-to-face, reason why the team was taking a specific action, such as cutting a player or starting one player over another.

The Bills lately have not had a football man as general manager, preferring to use a committee that included a variety of people working under team president Russ Brandon. And we all see how well that has worked in the last couple of years.

Owner Ralph Wilson has had a couple of bad experiences with something along the lines of "director of football operations." Apparently Bill Polian made Wilson feel uncomfortable visiting the team offices, and Tom Donahoe didn't exactly work out to his liking either. But it's nice to have someone in charge, and that's why apparently we're headed back toward that organizational structure ... and a few years too late, at that.

Billick also discusses the need for good drafts in a salary cap world. Drafted players represent relatively cheap labor, particularly after the first round. If you don't make good on those picks, and then keep them around as long as you can, you start furiously plugging leaks. And you never catch up.

Need proof? Let's examine the Bills' first-round picks for the last 10 years:

2000 -- Erik Flowers wasn't much help at all. A whiff.

2001 -- Nate Clements was a very good pick; too bad he left for a huge contract.

2002 -- Mike Williams was the fourth overall pick and never justified the pick. If he had worked out, he'd still be a cornerstone of the offensive line -- and life would be much easier to this day in that area.

2003 -- Willis McGahee was a big gamble, considering the Bills knew he'd miss a year after knee surgery. He had a couple of moments in a Buffalo uniform, but this swing for the fences resulted in a pop-up.

2004 -- After giving up a first rounder for Drew Bledsoe, Buffalo saw Bledsoe start to decline and took J.P. Losman as the "quarterback for the future." When Bledsoe's career took a continued dive, Losman never was able to take over. Lee Evans was much more like it.

2006 -- Donte Whitner has at least started whenever he's been healthy. The Bills tried to trade John McCargo, but the defensive lineman flunked his physical and has been a backup since then.

2007 -- If McGahee had come through, the Bills wouldn't have needed to draft Marshawn Lynch here. They could have addressed another need.

2008 -- If the Bills hadn't lost so many cornerbacks to free agency in the decade, the selection of Leotis McKelvin wouldn't have been necessary. We'll see how he does after losing almost all of 2009 to injury.

2009 -- Aaron Maybin signed very late and has done little this season. He shouldn't be written off yet, but early returns are discouraging. The jury is still out on Eric Wood.

Get the idea?

Dick Jauron made some mistakes in his three and one-half years as head coach of the Bills. The no-huddle offense this season in particular, with a very green offensive line and a young quarterback, might have been the biggest one. It not only didn't work, but it caused a fight with the offensive coordinator that resulted in a firing just before the start of the season. Jauron also never did any sort of job of becoming a public face for the franchise, something that the team could have used and something that could have bought him a little more time.

But if you're asking me if he ever had a chance, I'd guess, probably not. And if you're asking me if it would be worthwhile for a new football executive to at least give Billick a call, I'd say, probably so.

Sunday, November 15, 2009

No drama

Here's a problem for Buffalo Bills' fans after the team's ninth game of the season.

There's no drama left.

National Football League seasons essentially answer question that come up from the start. The big one, naturally, is, who will win the Super Bowl? But there are sub-plots along the way as well. The idea is for the season to slowly go toward a climatic moment.

Don't look for any climatic moments here, unless you are interested in knowing if the team will run for the bus the rest of the way. In the Bills' case, we wanted to know back in September if the team was capable of making a playoff run. With seven weeks left and a 3-6 record, it looks almost certainly like the answer is no.

There were other questions. Would Terrell Owens fit in and make the Bills better? Um, it's fair to say that Owens isn't going to make the season memorable for Buffalo for the right reasons. He still has a chance to make it memorable for the wrong ones. Right now his signing looks like an interesting but less-than-successful and expensive gamble.

Is Trent Edwards going to be the quarterback of the future? You'd have to guess no. The Bills would have to come up with some major dollars to sign him long-term in the coming offseason, and that doesn't look like a good idea. In other words, it's about time to start from scratch at the position ... again. The Bills apparently haven't made a great long-term decision about a quarterback since Jim Kelly; Doug Flutie and Drew Bledsoe merely had short-term moments.

Was not re-signing Jason Peters to a big contract a good idea? Based on the problems on the offensive line, it's fair to say Peters might have helped somewhere. Unless you like false starts and concussed quarterbacks.

Is Dick Jauron going to make it to next year? My guess is that it would take a winning record at this point to keep the fan base even a little happy, and that would mean 6-1 down the stretch ... with games against Indianapolis and New England, among others. I don't like his odds.

So here we are, in mid-November, and the story of the season seems more or less written. We're going to just have to wait to see what shoes will drop come early January in terms of some sort of top football executive, new coach, new quarterback, etc.

We've seen a lot of anger about the Bills in the first part of the season. It's easy to wonder if those feelings are about to turn into apathy for the rest of the calendar year, which is never a good sign. Put another way, I'm glad I don't have to sell Bills' tickets for a living the rest of the way.

Thursday, September 17, 2009

Day in the life of a Bills' fan

I know how you feel, buddy.

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Positive I'm negative

I think I'm the guy that once said that preseason games are forgotten within five minutes of the start of the National Football League season.

OK, I'll stick to that.

I'll also say that there hasn't been this much pessimism about the start of a Buffalo Bills' season since, oh, 1971.

You might recall that season as the one where John Rauch was fired just before the start of the games that counted for criticizing some of his ex-players in a television interview. He was replaced by Harvey Johnson, who was involved in one terrible season as an interim coach in 1968 (going 1-10-1 after replacing Joel Collier). Those bad feelings were justified; Johnson actually lowered his career coaching percentage with the Bills with a 1-13 season.

Why the long faces, Bills fans? Let's count the ways.

The Bills haven't made the playoffs in almost a decade. Dick Jauron has coached the team for three years, and gone 7-9 each time. Last season the Bills collapsed after a good start, as young quarterback Trent Edwards took a step sideways at best.

In the preseason, the Bills' starting offense scored exactly zero touchdowns in five games. Then on the eve of the season, Jauron fired offensive coordinator Turk Schonert. Schonert went out the door saying that Jauron wanted to install a more simple, Pop Warner-like offense. Ouch.

Two days after cutdown day, the Bills released starting left tackle Langston Walker. That means Demetrius Bell, who has as many pro starts in the regular season as I do, will take over on the most important spot on the line. Oh, and if he's nervous, he can at least talk about it with a pair of rookie guards. That's four new faces on the line from last season. What's the over/under for the number of games Edwards stays healthy?

Oh, and today Terrell Owens, when asked by the New England media, said he didn't really like the Bills' no-huddle offense. Bills' fans have been watching Owens like a volcano, waiting for a sign that he's ready to explode. The joys of having a combustible wide receiver are many.

Need some good news? It looks like a great year to be looking for a coach in December. The list of available candidates, at least potentially, include Bill Cowher, Brian Billick, Tony Dungy, Mike Shanahan and Mike Holmgren -- Super Bowl winners all. And it might be a great year to get a quarterback out of college, what with such players as Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy and the intriguing Tim Tebow joining the rest of the Class of 2010.

On the other hand, Bills' owner Ralph Wilson has never been one to go out and sign a big name for big dollars as a coach, at least since Chuck Knox came aboard about 30 years ago. And yesterday's college quarterbacking standout always has the chance to turn into the next Rick Mirer or, heaven forbid, Ryan Leaf.

And who wants to write off an entire season before it starts? I'll bet the people who have bought season tickets don't.

You know how you feel like averting your eyes when you see an accident coming? I wonder how the ratings will be for opening night against the New England Patriots.

Saturday, December 27, 2008

Who's next?

Mention Dick Jauron's name around Buffalo Bills' fans these days, and the reaction generally is less than polite. He seems to be the designated fall guy for the current season, one which lifted everyone's hopes in September and October, only to see those hopes crash in November and December.

The debate centers around Jauron should be back next season. Firing the coach is always a popular move when things don't go perfectly, and Jauron hasn't had a perfect year. My guess is if the Bills did indeed give him a contract extension earlier this season, it's difficult to believe they would bite the bullet on that and get rid of him. Owner Ralph Wilson has never paid top dollar for coaches in the past, with the probable exception of Chuck Knox, so it's unlikely he's going to pay more than a million dollars a year for Jauron not to coach and twice that for someone like Bill Cowher to coach.

A couple of points have been raised about Jauron's coaching style in my circle of friends. I'm buying one of them, but not the other. Let me start by being disagreeable.

There's a line of thought that says that Jauron doesn't show enough passion in his job, that football players need to be fully motivated by the coach with a liberal amount of screaming. Baloney. There are all kinds of way to win as a professional sports coach. Vince Lombardi was known to yell. Bill Belichick is prepared. Bill Walsh was cerebral. Bum Phillips was relaxed -- once stopping practice so everyone could come over and meet Willie Nelson. I will say that players sometimes tune out coaches after a while, and a different approach sometimes get their attention back. (For some reason this seems particularly true in hockey, and I have no idea why.) A couple of more wins, and Jauron might be promoted from "boring" to "shrewd" by some Bills' fans.

Jauron's lack of passion, I think, does hurt him in the public relations sense of the job, though. We've heard he's bright and loved by his players, but he never lets the public see that side of him through appearances in news conferences, etc. A little personality sometimes buys a coach the benefit of the doubt. Jauron has a very low profile; it's not like he has his own television show during the week. When Lou Saban fired a piece of chalk at a camera and said on his TV show, "Damn it, it should have worked" in describing a failed play, fans got a look into what he was like. When Marv Levy wrote and sang a Bills' fight song on television -- one of the greatest moments in coaches' show history (not a long list, admittedly) -- fans joined Levy in the fun.

It's important to remember that in most cases, the head coach is the public face of the football team. When that face becomes essentially a blank slate, he's not liable to get the benefit of the doubt.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

The basic problem

Here's the major issue involving the Buffalo Bills of the National Football League:

They don't seem to matter. And they haven't for years.

Yes, the Bills are one of 32 teams in the league, and that means many cities would kill to switch places with Buffalo in that sense. But when it comes to the national scene, the Bills are practically anonymous. Maybe not Detroit Lions anonymous, but certainly nondescript. They haven't been in the playoffs since 1999 -- remember the Music City Miracle -- and haven't won a playoff game since 1995.

Heck, even the Arizona Cardinals are winning this season. That's a franchise that hasn't mattered in decades, or in at least a city or two. OK, the Cardinals are in a division that is about as bad as the Norris Division of the NHL was in the 1980's, but that doesn't matter -- they are still winning it.

How does someone measure whether a team matters? You'd probably start with national buzz. The Bills never seem to pop up in the national media. There are few stories about their bright young stars or innovative coaching staff or quotable personalities. (I'm throwing early October of this year out of the discussion, since that 4-0 record proved to be something of an illusion.) They just quietly play from week to week.

Once in a while, media outlets make up a list of the top 100 players in the NFL. The Bills aren't in the top 20, or 30, or 50, very often. The Bills' best players probably are Lee Evans, who has stretches where the football is only a rumor to him, and Jason Peters, who held out of all of training camp without telling anyone including the Bills why. Trent Edwards might be good someday. Marshawn Lynch is pretty good and could get better. It's tough to predict superstardom for either of them, at least right now.

If you left Western New York right now, what would be the last (in terms of relevant year) Buffalo Bills jersey that you would be likely to see on a fan in another city? It's tough to picture Lynch or Evans jerseys without a personal connection. I don't think there are many J.P. Losmans, or Drew Bledsoes, or Rob Johnsons out there. Which probably brings us to Doug Flutie, who had a loyal fan base ... about 10 years ago. Otherwise, you'd probably see more jerseys of Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas or Bruce Smith than anything else. There are 21-year-olds out there now who might or might not remember those players in their primes.

There's one more factor here, and it almost goes undiscussed around Western New York. The Bills are the NFL's top candidate to move to another city. Owner Ralph Wilson, in his late 80's, has said Buffalo isn't a big enough market to compete with the New Yorks of the world, even in the socialist NFL. Wilson has no heirs who want the team. Meanwhile, a regular-season game a year for five years will be played in Toronto instead of Buffalo. The team's lease runs out after those five years. The Bills might be worth $250 million more in Los Angeles than they are in Buffalo. What matters less than a lame duck?

Western New York still loves its team, selling out the stadium week after week. That's impressive. Still, there's a feeling that the clock is running, and the city doesn't have all of its timeouts left.

I'm not suggesting that anyone in Buffalo would trade places with fans in Detroit. I'm merely saying that a string of mediocrity has more than its share of frustrations as well.

Friday, February 08, 2008

Worth sharing...

Marshawn Lynch is going to be my favorite Buffalo Bill if he keeps this up:

Thursday, February 07, 2008

Going, going ...

Some months ago, when the Buffalo Bills first announced a plan to play games in Toronto, a friend of mine who is a huge football fan said to me, "The first step, right?"

I replied, "Yes."

To fill in the blanks, he meant the first step for the Bills to move somewhere -- maybe Toronto, maybe not.

As Buffalo's economy has stagnated (I'm not sure if it is shrinking in absolute terms, only relative to other cities in North America), it's easy to guess that it will be more and more difficult to keep an NFL team here. Owner Ralph Wilson has been complaining about the economy here for years, and he did it again this week during a news conference in Toronto.

Now Wilson deserves a little credit here. He could have easily sold the team at any point in the last several years, and made a huge profit. How much do you think a team would be worth in the Los Angeles market right now, especially if a new stadium were promised to new owners as part of the deal? I would guess something close to a billion dollars. Wilson stayed put instead.

The Bills' ticket prices are pretty low, and they have trouble finding many corporations who are willing to pay ridiculous numbers for suites and club seating. Buffalo's revenue streams don't match the ones in Dallas or New York. This is a comment on the economics in Buffalo; it also may be a comment on the intelligence of Western New Yorkers who have trouble justifying thousands of dollars a year for eight (let's not even start with preseason games) NFL games.

But here's the catch. Wouldn't you love to see a full economic disclosure by an NFL team? Or two?

The Bills have their entire football payroll covered, more or less, by television payments. It's something around $100 million, I believe. That means everything else taken in can go toward the rest of their expenses. The Bills have been selling games out pretty regularly in the last decade despite missing the playoffs for the past several years. Are they losing money, or not making enough for their partners?

Even with a labor deal that doesn't work overly well for the small-market teams, it's easy to wonder where the money is going. Come to think of it, it's easy to wonder how the Green Bay Packers are making ends meet -- and they are a national institution.

Certainly, other teams can charge more for tickets and suites, and that means more money in the system and more money for the salary cap. That will make it tougher and tougher for the Bills to keep up. But again, it's tough to know what the timetable from going from black to red ink might be.

The Bills' lease was only signed for 15 years, and it has a steadily decreasing penalty for early departure -- not the best of deals from the population's standpoint. It's easy to be pessimistic that the team will ever sign another one.

Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Women and children last

Here's a little tip for the football fans of Western New York: Attending a Buffalo Bills' game in Ralph Wilson Stadium is not for the faint of heart.

Particularly when the New York Giants are in town.

Let's start with the disclaimers. It was a miserable day, squared. The temperature went from 53 to 35 during the game, and it at least drizzled and sometimes poured. There was virtually no way to stay dry. A moment of silence, please, for my gloves. With the home team eventually losing, no local fan was going to have a great time.

Then there's the tailgating/alcohol issues. I think I wrote last year about how the parking lots at the Ralph look a little like an Iraqi city after a game, with empties and broken glass scattered about the grounds. Driving out of there is not for the faint of heart most days. In the stands, this week there was a steady stream of fans carrying $8 beers back to their seats (and how can they afford them?).

However, the games I attended in 2006 were fine once I got in the gate. My group and I sat down and watched the game in a relatively civilized, dignified manner. That's perhaps because the Titans and Jaguars don't bring bunches of fans with them.

Well, that sure didn't happen Sunday against Giants. Whew. There was a constant stream of bad language directed at the Giants, often about the personal habits of Eli Manning. New York had a good supply of its own fans at the game; they were easy to pick out since they were wearing Giants' jerseys. There was some less-than-clever, back-and-forth conversation between the Giants and Bills' fans.

At one point at halftime, a Bills' fan yelled at a Giants' fan wearing a Lawrence Taylor jersey, "Hey, why don't you wear a shirt from this decade at least? That's so 1980's." The Giants fan replied, "Nice franchise you've got here. And how many rings do you have?" Add a few bad words in the midst of the conversation, and you'll get the idea.

Here's the catch. I was sitting in seats owned by a season-ticket holder of at least 30 years. In other words, this was not the end zone where fans were a little more likely to be single-game ticket holders who were just there for a party. I should have been surrounded by people who were veteran fans. It was almost a surprise there were no fights, although an usher had to come down to break up a shouting match.

One friend of mine brought two teenage girls to the game. When he told two fans behind him to watch the language because of the kids, he got, as he put it, "some lip" for his trouble. I've heard all sorts of profanity over the years, so I'm at least used to it even if my vocabulary is close to squeaky-clean. But this was as bad as I've heard at a sporting event.

I'm glad I didn't bring any kids to the game, and I'm glad I didn't bring my wife to the game. And that's not a particularly good sign about a sporting event that's features the sale of tickets to all the general public.

Saturday, November 10, 2007

Don't look ahead...

When the National Football League season was announced last spring, there was much sadness among fans of the Buffalo Bills. Fans looked over the week-by-week lineup and said the Bills looked like a candidate to capture the first overall draft choice for the spring of 2008.

Then a funny thing happened. Teams started to play games.

Here we are at the midpoint of the season in Buffalo, and the Bills are 4-4. They aren't going to the Super Bowl, but they are on the fringes of playoff contention. So what happened?

People used the 2006 as a way of predicting what would happen in 2007. And that never works. Teams go up and down the ladder quickly these days, what with injuries, free agent movement, etc.

In the Bills' case, Buffalo has beaten the Jets twice. New York was a playoff team last year and looked too strong for the Bills in April. Now the Jets don't look too strong for anyone, except for maybe the Dolphins and Rams. The Bills also beat a weakened Ravens team, playing without its starting quarterback and some other key people, and a Bengals team that seems to have an arrest every few days (I exaggerate, but not much). That puts Buffalo at 4-4, and it hasn't even played the Dolphins yet.

I know football fans need something to do in the spring -- witness the popularity of the run-up to the NFL draft, even though one trade can change the entire mock draft order -- but let's keep the ups and downs of teams from year-to-year in mind before writing off a season.